Ahead of Eidul Fitr, petrol prices will increase by approximately Rs10-11 per liter on Sunday (March 31) for the next two weeks. This surge is primarily attributed to higher import premiums and global prices. Conversely, the price of high-speed diesel (HSD) is expected to decrease by up to Rs2 per liter.
With petrol’s current ex-depot price hovering around Rs280 per liter, the upcoming review might push it beyond Rs290. Informed sources indicate that the import price of petrol has risen by about $4 per barrel, with its import premium climbing to $13.5 per barrel from $12.15 a fortnight ago due to geopolitical tensions. Consequently, petrol prices are estimated to increase by Rs10-11 per liter, contingent upon the final exchange rate calculation.
On the other hand, the international market saw a decline in HSD prices, and Pakistan State Oil’s (PSO) import premium remained unchanged at $6.50 per barrel. Consequently, the rate of high-speed diesel is anticipated to decrease by Rs1.30 to Rs2.50 per liter, subject to final exchange rate adjustments.
In the previous fortnightly review, the government maintained petrol prices at Rs279.75 per liter and reduced HSD rates by Rs1.77 per liter to Rs285.56. The government levies a petroleum development levy (PDL) of Rs60 per liter on petrol and HSD, as mandated by law. Under IMF commitments, the government aims to collect Rs869 billion in PDL during the fiscal year, having already collected about Rs475 billion in the first half (July-December).
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Petroleum and electricity prices significantly impact inflation, particularly middle- and lower-middle-class budgets. While petrol primarily impacts private transport and small vehicles, HSD’s increase affects heavy transport vehicles, trains, and agricultural engines, thus influencing the prices of essentials like vegetables.
There is no general sales tax (GST) on any petroleum product. The government imposes an Rs50 levy on high-octane blending components and 95 research octane number petrol, along with approximately Rs19-20 per litre customs duty on petrol and HSD.
Both fuels are major revenue sources, with monthly sales of about 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes compared to the 10,000-tonne monthly demand for kerosene.
